Monday 13 April 2015

More Than 50% Of Scottish Voters Say They Will Vote SNP

More than half of adults in Scotland who are certain to vote on May 7 (52%) said they would vote SNP, against 24% backing Labour a TNS poll of 978 adults in Scotland found.

The 28-point lead is nearly double last month's figure, when the parties scored 46% and 30% respectively.

The Conservatives scored 13% (down one percentage point), the Liberal Democrats 6% (up three points) and the Greens 3% (down one point).

Support for Ukip in Scotland is "almost negligible", TNS said. The survey covered the period of the UK-wide TV debates, although it closed before the impact of the Scottish leaders' TV debates could be taken into account.

Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said: "The official election campaign has got off to a great start for the SNP, undoubtedly helped by Nicola Sturgeon's strong performance in the UK-wide TV debate. Not only has Labour's hopes of a recovery in support been dashed but, even worse, it appears to have gone backwards.

"The SNP seems to be building on the momentum which they carried forward from the independence referendum, while Jim Murphy is still struggling to win back Labour's lost supporters. Indeed, the latest poll shows some evidence that the growth in SNP support is mainly coming from disaffected Labour supporters.

"But it's important to remember that the campaign is really only beginning and 29% of those who say they are certain to vote have not made up their minds who to vote for. It will be interesting to see what difference the campaigns of the various parties make to people's intentions by polling day."

Support for the SNP continues to be very strong among younger voters who are certain to vote and express a preference - 71% of 18 to 34-year-olds, against 57% for 35 to 54-year-olds and 40% for those aged 55 and over. Among the oldest age group, Labour scores 32% and the Conservatives 20%.

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